It occurred to me today that the folks at the NY Times may in fact be suffering from depression, and I mean that in the clinical sense.
Why the sudden diagnosis? Well, Captain's Quarters alerted me to this editorial about the Iraqi constitutional compromise in today's NY Times (for contrast, compare the Times's take on the matter with the elation of Iraqi blogger Mohammed at Iraq the Model).
As Captain Ed points out, with only a little hyperbole:
Each paragraph [of the editorial] starts out with some gloomy statement on what the Times sees as reality. Each statement relates back to American efforts to create this democratic environment, either directly or indirectly...
The torturous process of actually saying something meaningful about the Iraqi agreement on a new constitution in the days ahead of the vote grinds on through eight paragraphs written in this stultifying prose, as like a bad pop song with an unrelenting, unchanging bass line. It takes that long for the Times to admit that the developments this week give greater hope for unity after the plebescite and for greater Sunni participation in democracy thereafter. The editorial approaches masterpiece status for sour grapes and for burying the lede. Even its title, "A Flicker Of Hope In Iraq", makes this major step forward seem little more than a mere footnote in an encyclopedia of misery.
"A footnote in an encyclopedia of misery." Reading this, I had one of those sudden insights that seem to make what was formerly murky as clear as day: the entire editorial staff of the Times is clinically depressed. For here is exactly the sort of behavior one would expect from a depressed person: the inability to take pleasure in even good news, the constant "yes-butting" that negates anything positive before it can sink in or be savored. One can almost see the sad, heavy eyes of the writer, and hear the droning voice with its flat affect.
And now I also see the Times's constant ignoring of the good news from Iraq in a different light. It's another symptom of depression.
Oh, I know what those of you who still like the Gray Lady will say: they're just being judicious and cautious, and rightly so. And indeed caution is in order. But I think the Times has a track record of going way beyond caution, into a gloom that can hardly be dispelled by facts.
It seems that lately I've been prescribing meds without a license. But I have yet another suggestion along those lines for those at the Times: perhaps a trial of SSRIs might be in order.
It could make that hope become a tad more than a flicker. Just a thought.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
And now for some real news
I am extremely heartened by the recently-announced compromise on Iraq's constitution.
But rather than comment further myself, I'll leave that honor to one of the many valiant citizens of Iraq, a man who was among the first to give us a window on that troubled and long-suffering country and its courageous people--Mohammed, of Iraq the Model:
At this moment, the National Assembly is holding a ceremony celebrating the new breakthrough agreement on the constitution which President Talbani described as the “Day of National Accord”.
What happened today is a historic event that will isolate the enemies of Iraq and freedom and will pave the way for a clear future for Iraq after important Sunni groups decided to actively join the political process in Iraq.
There’s a visible feeling of relief on the streets and I think the constitution is on the way to be ratified…the process has come out of the emergency room and recovery will follow.
But rather than comment further myself, I'll leave that honor to one of the many valiant citizens of Iraq, a man who was among the first to give us a window on that troubled and long-suffering country and its courageous people--Mohammed, of Iraq the Model:
At this moment, the National Assembly is holding a ceremony celebrating the new breakthrough agreement on the constitution which President Talbani described as the “Day of National Accord”.
What happened today is a historic event that will isolate the enemies of Iraq and freedom and will pave the way for a clear future for Iraq after important Sunni groups decided to actively join the political process in Iraq.
There’s a visible feeling of relief on the streets and I think the constitution is on the way to be ratified…the process has come out of the emergency room and recovery will follow.
Fire-breathing bloggers
In my last post I suggested the blogosphere take a chill pill. Too much heat, not enough light right now. Does this mean I'm disillusioned with the blogosphere? Not a bit.
Blogs are a naturally "hot" medium, although each blog has its own signature temperature. Mine tends to be a bit cooler than most, by design; I try to reflect before I write, and not shoot from the hip. But for some bloggers and pundits, shooting from the hip is their stock in trade, their raison d-etre, and a good part of their considerable appeal.
One thing I never realized before I became a blogger was the extent to which the medium itself encourages outrageousness. How does one get attention in all the blooming buzzing confusion? One way is by being louder and tougher and more clever and hard-hitting than the rest. As one blogs more and more, there's also a tendency to become more confident about what one says--and a lot of bloggers don't start out too timid about their opinions to begin with, else why would they blog? So there's a sort of ever-escalating feedback loop that encourages more and more hyperventilation in the blogosphere.
When I think about it, the absence of editors--formal or informal--is a large part of the phenomenon. Please don't think that, by pointing this out, I'm calling for blog editors; I'm not. But the blogger is ordinarily alone with his/her thoughts--sometimes even in the wee hours of the morning, and usually in a hurry to get something finished and get on with "real life"--but almost always alone. Nothing between the blogger, the computer screen, and that "publish" button. And once the moving finger writes, it can't be undone--not without someone noticing and raising a stink, anyway.
For the other writing I do in my life, I ordinarily will take far longer to compose something, edit it, mull it over, edit it again, and finally decide it's more or less finished. Somewhere along the way I usually show it to at least one friend or family member. For years I've belonged to a wonderful writing group, at which I meet regularly with fellow-writers to offer and receive comments, criticisms, and suggestions on works-in-progress. Needless to say, I never bring my blog writing to those meetings--and not only because they are heartily sick of anything political, and mostly disagree with me on that score rather intensely--but because there's simply no time. The medium doesn't allow it.
"Taking a chill pill" requires standing back, reflecting, taking time. And taking time is something the blogosphere definitely does not encourage. But the blogosphere's strength lies in the aggregate: even without much time, corrections tend to happen, because some other blogger will object. In a way, other bloggers--and commenters--act as ex-post-facto editors.
You might say we're all members of a very large writing group.
Blogs are a naturally "hot" medium, although each blog has its own signature temperature. Mine tends to be a bit cooler than most, by design; I try to reflect before I write, and not shoot from the hip. But for some bloggers and pundits, shooting from the hip is their stock in trade, their raison d-etre, and a good part of their considerable appeal.
One thing I never realized before I became a blogger was the extent to which the medium itself encourages outrageousness. How does one get attention in all the blooming buzzing confusion? One way is by being louder and tougher and more clever and hard-hitting than the rest. As one blogs more and more, there's also a tendency to become more confident about what one says--and a lot of bloggers don't start out too timid about their opinions to begin with, else why would they blog? So there's a sort of ever-escalating feedback loop that encourages more and more hyperventilation in the blogosphere.
When I think about it, the absence of editors--formal or informal--is a large part of the phenomenon. Please don't think that, by pointing this out, I'm calling for blog editors; I'm not. But the blogger is ordinarily alone with his/her thoughts--sometimes even in the wee hours of the morning, and usually in a hurry to get something finished and get on with "real life"--but almost always alone. Nothing between the blogger, the computer screen, and that "publish" button. And once the moving finger writes, it can't be undone--not without someone noticing and raising a stink, anyway.
For the other writing I do in my life, I ordinarily will take far longer to compose something, edit it, mull it over, edit it again, and finally decide it's more or less finished. Somewhere along the way I usually show it to at least one friend or family member. For years I've belonged to a wonderful writing group, at which I meet regularly with fellow-writers to offer and receive comments, criticisms, and suggestions on works-in-progress. Needless to say, I never bring my blog writing to those meetings--and not only because they are heartily sick of anything political, and mostly disagree with me on that score rather intensely--but because there's simply no time. The medium doesn't allow it.
"Taking a chill pill" requires standing back, reflecting, taking time. And taking time is something the blogosphere definitely does not encourage. But the blogosphere's strength lies in the aggregate: even without much time, corrections tend to happen, because some other blogger will object. In a way, other bloggers--and commenters--act as ex-post-facto editors.
You might say we're all members of a very large writing group.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
It depends on what the meaning of "possible" is
Well, now there's a firestorm around Laura Bush, heretofore the most inoffensive woman on the face of the planet.
And just what is Ms. Bush alleged to have said? I'm not going to go into every detail. I'll just link to this post at Big Lizards (via Instapundit), for your perusal.
So, did Laura Bush in fact declare that critics of the Miers nomination were motivated by sexism? Read the transcript; you be the judge (unlike the unfortunate Ms. Miers). Did Ms. Bush indeed, as Reuters alleges, make the nefarious claim that, "it was possible some critics were being sexist in their opposition to Harriet Miers"?
Well, if so, I would just like to point out that, last time I checked, the word "possible" meant "within the realm of possibility." It does not mean "certain," nor even "likely;" in fact, it doesn't even mean "probable." It simply means "not able to be absolutely excluded as impossible."
If Laura Bush had answered the question Lauer posed as to whether "[s]ome are suggesting there's a little possible sexism in the criticism of Judge [sic] Miers," with the words, "No, absolutely not; it is categorically impossible," she would have been criticized for being stark raving mad.
Of course it's "possible" that somewhere, somehow, there are "some" critics who are indeed a little sexist in their criticism.
I think the entire blogosphere needs to take a chill pill.
And just what is Ms. Bush alleged to have said? I'm not going to go into every detail. I'll just link to this post at Big Lizards (via Instapundit), for your perusal.
So, did Laura Bush in fact declare that critics of the Miers nomination were motivated by sexism? Read the transcript; you be the judge (unlike the unfortunate Ms. Miers). Did Ms. Bush indeed, as Reuters alleges, make the nefarious claim that, "it was possible some critics were being sexist in their opposition to Harriet Miers"?
Well, if so, I would just like to point out that, last time I checked, the word "possible" meant "within the realm of possibility." It does not mean "certain," nor even "likely;" in fact, it doesn't even mean "probable." It simply means "not able to be absolutely excluded as impossible."
If Laura Bush had answered the question Lauer posed as to whether "[s]ome are suggesting there's a little possible sexism in the criticism of Judge [sic] Miers," with the words, "No, absolutely not; it is categorically impossible," she would have been criticized for being stark raving mad.
Of course it's "possible" that somewhere, somehow, there are "some" critics who are indeed a little sexist in their criticism.
I think the entire blogosphere needs to take a chill pill.
Originalism: be careful what you wish for
I have some questions for those who are clamoring for a strict originalist to be appointed to the Supreme Court.
A little background: in 1973, the Supreme Court famously ruled in Roe v. Wade that states could not outlaw abortion because the Constitution contains a right to privacy that would be violated by such laws. But repealing Roe v. Wade would not automatically outlaw abortion again. It would simply leave that option open to the states.
So here's my first hypothetical for everyone who is a strict originalist: let's say that Roe v. Wade is repealed, and although every state is now free to outlaw abortion, all states defeat proposed laws against it, and actually end up continuing to allow abortion. Would you be satisfied with such a result, since a strict originalist ruling was followed, even though abortion would remain every bit as legal as it is today?
Griswold v Connecticut, the 1965 case that established the right to privacy on which the Roe decision relied, concerned the right of married couples to have access to contraception in the state of Connecticut, which had banned contraceptives even for the married. So my next question is this: If an originalist court overruled the right to privacy which had been established in Griswold, and as a result some states passed laws prohibiting access to contraceptives for married couples and actually enforced those laws, what you be satisfied with the result, because a strict originalist ruling had been followed?
These hypotheticals may indeed be exaggerations, but they are certainly not impossibilities. I think they illustrate two things: (a) whether a person really is a champion of originalism or whether that person actually just wants a certain result from application of the doctrine, and (b) some of the possible problems inherent in strict originalism (at least, as I read it).
Personally, I agree with those who think judicial activism and "legislation from the bench" can sometimes represent an overreaching, and that less is often more. But, as with many things, it's a balancing act; sometimes a bit of judicial stretching can be a way to protect our rights from legislative and/or executive overreaching. Would you feel comfortable if states were free to make laws such as the banning of contraceptive devices for married couples? And, if there were no constitutional right to privacy, what would be the legal principle on which such laws might be overruled, if passed? I wonder in particular what the stance of libertarians might be on this?
One further question: do you know that one of the bases for Roe was what could arguably be called an "originalist" interpretation of the word "person" in the US Constitution? The Court found in Roe that fetuses should not be considered "persons" protected with the full rights as such under the Constitution, because at the time of that document's writing, abortion was legal and fetuses were not considered to be persons.
Be careful what you wish for.
[NOTE: I know I said yesterday I was planning to declare a Miers moratorium. Well, this post is close to being about Miers--but it's not. Look, I didn't even mention her name!--until now, anyway.]
A little background: in 1973, the Supreme Court famously ruled in Roe v. Wade that states could not outlaw abortion because the Constitution contains a right to privacy that would be violated by such laws. But repealing Roe v. Wade would not automatically outlaw abortion again. It would simply leave that option open to the states.
So here's my first hypothetical for everyone who is a strict originalist: let's say that Roe v. Wade is repealed, and although every state is now free to outlaw abortion, all states defeat proposed laws against it, and actually end up continuing to allow abortion. Would you be satisfied with such a result, since a strict originalist ruling was followed, even though abortion would remain every bit as legal as it is today?
Griswold v Connecticut, the 1965 case that established the right to privacy on which the Roe decision relied, concerned the right of married couples to have access to contraception in the state of Connecticut, which had banned contraceptives even for the married. So my next question is this: If an originalist court overruled the right to privacy which had been established in Griswold, and as a result some states passed laws prohibiting access to contraceptives for married couples and actually enforced those laws, what you be satisfied with the result, because a strict originalist ruling had been followed?
These hypotheticals may indeed be exaggerations, but they are certainly not impossibilities. I think they illustrate two things: (a) whether a person really is a champion of originalism or whether that person actually just wants a certain result from application of the doctrine, and (b) some of the possible problems inherent in strict originalism (at least, as I read it).
Personally, I agree with those who think judicial activism and "legislation from the bench" can sometimes represent an overreaching, and that less is often more. But, as with many things, it's a balancing act; sometimes a bit of judicial stretching can be a way to protect our rights from legislative and/or executive overreaching. Would you feel comfortable if states were free to make laws such as the banning of contraceptive devices for married couples? And, if there were no constitutional right to privacy, what would be the legal principle on which such laws might be overruled, if passed? I wonder in particular what the stance of libertarians might be on this?
One further question: do you know that one of the bases for Roe was what could arguably be called an "originalist" interpretation of the word "person" in the US Constitution? The Court found in Roe that fetuses should not be considered "persons" protected with the full rights as such under the Constitution, because at the time of that document's writing, abortion was legal and fetuses were not considered to be persons.
Be careful what you wish for.
[NOTE: I know I said yesterday I was planning to declare a Miers moratorium. Well, this post is close to being about Miers--but it's not. Look, I didn't even mention her name!--until now, anyway.]
The turning point
It's always a tough moment, and it's getting tougher all the time as fuel prices skyrocket. But there comes a point when the bone-chilling wet cold gets to me, and shuffling around the house in multiple sweats and sweaters, or huddling in the bathroom near the space heater, just doesn't cut it any more. That's when I break down and perform the act I've been putting off for weeks: the turning on of the furnace.
I hate it. Hate it. Like most New Englanders, I delay it as long as possible. It's a point of honor, a sort of competition for who's managed to hold off the longest. Hint: it's not me. I know people who stonewall well into November.
But it can be in the thirties here at night, even in September, and during the day there's just not enough warmth to dispel the feeling of being in a meat locker when I'm in my home. The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak, and so down I go to the basement, flip that little switch, hear the satisfying "pop" of the gas being lit, and return upstairs to that wonderful sensation of slowly spreading warmth.
I hate it. Hate it. Like most New Englanders, I delay it as long as possible. It's a point of honor, a sort of competition for who's managed to hold off the longest. Hint: it's not me. I know people who stonewall well into November.
But it can be in the thirties here at night, even in September, and during the day there's just not enough warmth to dispel the feeling of being in a meat locker when I'm in my home. The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak, and so down I go to the basement, flip that little switch, hear the satisfying "pop" of the gas being lit, and return upstairs to that wonderful sensation of slowly spreading warmth.
Monday, October 10, 2005
Looking at the big picture: a question for conservatives
The fallout from the radioactive Miers nomination has revealed a rift on the right that was always there but was never quite so clear before (at least to me): a gap between those whose overriding focus is the war on terror/Islamofascism, and those who would throw it all over in a heartbeat for a chance to fight for a strict constructionist majority on the Supreme Court and other aspects of the conservative domestic agenda. And all this before the latter group even knows for sure whether Miers wouldn't in fact be pretty closely aligned with them in fighting for that conservative domestic agenda.
Weigh the two against each other and see which is more important. Remember, we're not talking about a gaggle of Chomskyite far-leftists who think the war on terror is a crock anyway, and who see Al Qaeda members as persecuted victims of the West. No, we're talking about people who, just a few short days ago, thought the war was of paramount importance and that Democrats could not be trusted to run it.
But, surprise, surprise; it turns out that, at least to a certain segment of conservatives, having the Supreme Court populated by an originalist is far more important, important enough to concede the next four years to the Democrats.
I don't know what percentage of conservatives feel this way. But here's one of them, a commenter at the Anchoress:
I admit that this nomination may well fracture the right for an election cycle. I’m perfectly happy to do that if it means that the right returns stronger and more resolved to integrity and the core principles the right has championed for decades. I’m more than willing to cede the Presidency to the Democrats for four years if it means that we spend that time remembering what it is we really stand for on the right.
"What it is we really stand for on the right." So okay folks, what is that? Is it the domestic conservative agenda above all? I understand that you feel that Bush's nomination of Miers has betrayed this aim, and that in his presidency he's betrayed other basic conservative principles, such as limitations on government spending.
But is all that really more important to you than the war against Islamofascism? That's a real question, not just a rhetorical one, by the way. And yes, of course Bush has made mistakes in the conduct of the war. The important issue is whether you think the Democrats would do better.
So, do you prefer to stick it to Bush and allow the Democrats to handle that, and let the chips fall where they may?
[Note: after this post I just may declare a Miers moratorium for a while.]
[ADDENDUM: Dr. Sanity, whose conservative bona fides are strong whereas mine are nonexistent, asks the same question. And the good doctor doesn't pull her punches.]
Weigh the two against each other and see which is more important. Remember, we're not talking about a gaggle of Chomskyite far-leftists who think the war on terror is a crock anyway, and who see Al Qaeda members as persecuted victims of the West. No, we're talking about people who, just a few short days ago, thought the war was of paramount importance and that Democrats could not be trusted to run it.
But, surprise, surprise; it turns out that, at least to a certain segment of conservatives, having the Supreme Court populated by an originalist is far more important, important enough to concede the next four years to the Democrats.
I don't know what percentage of conservatives feel this way. But here's one of them, a commenter at the Anchoress:
I admit that this nomination may well fracture the right for an election cycle. I’m perfectly happy to do that if it means that the right returns stronger and more resolved to integrity and the core principles the right has championed for decades. I’m more than willing to cede the Presidency to the Democrats for four years if it means that we spend that time remembering what it is we really stand for on the right.
"What it is we really stand for on the right." So okay folks, what is that? Is it the domestic conservative agenda above all? I understand that you feel that Bush's nomination of Miers has betrayed this aim, and that in his presidency he's betrayed other basic conservative principles, such as limitations on government spending.
But is all that really more important to you than the war against Islamofascism? That's a real question, not just a rhetorical one, by the way. And yes, of course Bush has made mistakes in the conduct of the war. The important issue is whether you think the Democrats would do better.
So, do you prefer to stick it to Bush and allow the Democrats to handle that, and let the chips fall where they may?
[Note: after this post I just may declare a Miers moratorium for a while.]
[ADDENDUM: Dr. Sanity, whose conservative bona fides are strong whereas mine are nonexistent, asks the same question. And the good doctor doesn't pull her punches.]
The trend continues: so long, Schroder
Lost in the cacaphonous din of the Miers nomination is the following news: Angela Merkel of the Christian Democrats (now, there's a party title unlikely to fly in this country) appears to be on her way to becoming Germany's next Chancellor.
Although the government under her will be rather evenly mixed, the result of a compromise between her party and Schroder's Social Democrats, her replacement of Schroder as Chancellor continues a worldwide trend noted here.
The trend? In general (with the noted exception of Spain), in countries which have had post-Iraq war elections, those who backed the coalition have been electorally victorious, while those who bucked it are gone.
Although the government under her will be rather evenly mixed, the result of a compromise between her party and Schroder's Social Democrats, her replacement of Schroder as Chancellor continues a worldwide trend noted here.
The trend? In general (with the noted exception of Spain), in countries which have had post-Iraq war elections, those who backed the coalition have been electorally victorious, while those who bucked it are gone.
Forget the Law of Thirds at your peril
Some time ago--long before I became a blogger, or even a neocon--I noticed a certain phenomenon and gave it what I thought was a unique name: the "Law of Thirds."
Well, it turns out the phrase also refers to a recommendation for photography composition, as well as a math principle involving random numbers. I guess it's harder than I thought to be original.
But no matter. Basically, my law refers to the fact that the populace of the US seems to be divided roughly into thirds, at least in the political sense: one-third on the entrenched left, one-third on the entrenched right, and one-third in between. It was something I'd noticed over and over in public opinion polls, and it seemed to be stable over time.
You all know where I stand--in that middle third. I think it's actually where I've always stood, although I used to be positioned towards the leftish end of that middle, and now I stand pretty much in the very middle of that middle. It's from this moderate middle third that elections are generally decided.
For the past few years we've been hearing a great deal of noise from the third on the left, the ones who suffer from the ailment known as Bush Derangement Syndrome. And now, with the Miers nomination, we're hearing the din emanating from the right third. To me, it's not a whole lot more attractive a sound, although it's a very different one in a very different cause.
Yesterday I wrote about what I think motivates those on the right who are rushing to judgment on Miers. Since then, I've done some more reading on conservative blogs about Miers, and some of the comments of those who are dead set against her have reminded me--as if I needed reminding--of just why I'm happy to call myself an independent, and of just how much the extremists on both sides resemble each other in their rage, their rigidity, and their sense of entitlement and grandiosity.
Here, for example, is a reader's dissenting comment to what I consider a very practical and evenhanded post at Polipundit. I offer an excerpt from the comment to illustrate the sort of thing I'm talking about:
What is so disappointing about the Miers nomination is the missed opportunity. No, not the missed opportunity to get a high-powered known-quantity conservative. That certainly could have failed, probably would have failed, as many have noted, given the likely apostasy of several GOP senators. So what? The battle itself would have been the prize:
(1) It would have forced the issue onto public consciousness in a way that the Miers nomination never will. Nobody, NOBODY, outside the respective bases and political junkies will give a whit about or pay a shred of attention to the Miers nomination. A teaching opportunity simply thrown away.
(2) It would have put on record the names, ranks and serial numbers of the apostates to blame for the failure to confirm. Not that we really don't know who they are, but they should be forced on record with their apostasy, with all the consequences that might follow thereunto. It's simply too easy to let them, in effect, kill the nomination of some Really Qualified conservative nominee without ever lifting a finger, and without taking explicit responsibility for the assasination. In the long-run, the best way to instill (enforce) conservative loyalty is to force the wishy-washy "moderates"; (and, truth be told, outright liberal Republicans)to own up to, act upon, and live with the consequences of their betrayals...
The final conclusion from all this: Bush is not a President of, for, or by the conservative movement. He is "conservative"in many (but certainly not all) of his instincts and policy preferences. But he is not a conservative warrior. He really believes in all that "get along together as Americans", "set a new tone and rise above partisanship"; bullshit. He wants to be a good President for America, pure and simple, not a crusader for the conservative movement. Thus all the reasons I've advanced for his pressing the fight for a conservative nominee he very likely would eventually lose have no appeal for him.
Now I, for one, become very nervous when accusations of "apostasy" get thrown around and don't seem to be meant as some sort of joke. The comment tells us quite a bit, I think, about the far right reaches of conservatism, which is rather like the far left reaches of "progressivism," to wit: "tow the most extreme version of the party line or we ostracize and/or destroy you."
The most telling sentences to me are the ones I've highlighted in boldface. If I understand the writer correctly, they're meant to be a condemnation of Bush. In my opinion, they ought to be a recommendation.
Those who are considerably to the right or left often seem to have another thing in common: when their party happens to get into power, they believe it means that the Law of Thirds has been repealed, just for them. It hasn't. As far as I know it's still in operation, and has been for quite some time. Anyone from either radical third who thinks the American people will be happy to give his/her third a permanent ascendance in American political life is quite wrong, IMHO, and that person will be soundly rejected by said American people if he/she arrogantly and openly displays the hubris of thinking so--whether that person's name be Howard Dean or Newt Gingrich or whomever else would be an even better example of the genre.
Right now I'm not sure whether the vocal conservatives whom Ed Morrissey of Captain's Quarters refers to as the "Rebel Alliance" actually think they can win more elections behaving this way, or whether they just don't care if they do or don't as long as they get what they want now. Either way, the electorate is watching, and my guess is that the rest of the middle third isn't liking what it's seeing any more than I am.
By the way, if anyone wants to read an exceptionally reasonable conservative voice on the matter of Harriet Miers, please visit BeldarBlog. Beldar been hard at work ever since the Miers flap began, and he's somehow managed to stay informative, circumspect, and fair to all concerned. It can't be easy.
Well, it turns out the phrase also refers to a recommendation for photography composition, as well as a math principle involving random numbers. I guess it's harder than I thought to be original.
But no matter. Basically, my law refers to the fact that the populace of the US seems to be divided roughly into thirds, at least in the political sense: one-third on the entrenched left, one-third on the entrenched right, and one-third in between. It was something I'd noticed over and over in public opinion polls, and it seemed to be stable over time.
You all know where I stand--in that middle third. I think it's actually where I've always stood, although I used to be positioned towards the leftish end of that middle, and now I stand pretty much in the very middle of that middle. It's from this moderate middle third that elections are generally decided.
For the past few years we've been hearing a great deal of noise from the third on the left, the ones who suffer from the ailment known as Bush Derangement Syndrome. And now, with the Miers nomination, we're hearing the din emanating from the right third. To me, it's not a whole lot more attractive a sound, although it's a very different one in a very different cause.
Yesterday I wrote about what I think motivates those on the right who are rushing to judgment on Miers. Since then, I've done some more reading on conservative blogs about Miers, and some of the comments of those who are dead set against her have reminded me--as if I needed reminding--of just why I'm happy to call myself an independent, and of just how much the extremists on both sides resemble each other in their rage, their rigidity, and their sense of entitlement and grandiosity.
Here, for example, is a reader's dissenting comment to what I consider a very practical and evenhanded post at Polipundit. I offer an excerpt from the comment to illustrate the sort of thing I'm talking about:
What is so disappointing about the Miers nomination is the missed opportunity. No, not the missed opportunity to get a high-powered known-quantity conservative. That certainly could have failed, probably would have failed, as many have noted, given the likely apostasy of several GOP senators. So what? The battle itself would have been the prize:
(1) It would have forced the issue onto public consciousness in a way that the Miers nomination never will. Nobody, NOBODY, outside the respective bases and political junkies will give a whit about or pay a shred of attention to the Miers nomination. A teaching opportunity simply thrown away.
(2) It would have put on record the names, ranks and serial numbers of the apostates to blame for the failure to confirm. Not that we really don't know who they are, but they should be forced on record with their apostasy, with all the consequences that might follow thereunto. It's simply too easy to let them, in effect, kill the nomination of some Really Qualified conservative nominee without ever lifting a finger, and without taking explicit responsibility for the assasination. In the long-run, the best way to instill (enforce) conservative loyalty is to force the wishy-washy "moderates"; (and, truth be told, outright liberal Republicans)to own up to, act upon, and live with the consequences of their betrayals...
The final conclusion from all this: Bush is not a President of, for, or by the conservative movement. He is "conservative"in many (but certainly not all) of his instincts and policy preferences. But he is not a conservative warrior. He really believes in all that "get along together as Americans", "set a new tone and rise above partisanship"; bullshit. He wants to be a good President for America, pure and simple, not a crusader for the conservative movement. Thus all the reasons I've advanced for his pressing the fight for a conservative nominee he very likely would eventually lose have no appeal for him.
Now I, for one, become very nervous when accusations of "apostasy" get thrown around and don't seem to be meant as some sort of joke. The comment tells us quite a bit, I think, about the far right reaches of conservatism, which is rather like the far left reaches of "progressivism," to wit: "tow the most extreme version of the party line or we ostracize and/or destroy you."
The most telling sentences to me are the ones I've highlighted in boldface. If I understand the writer correctly, they're meant to be a condemnation of Bush. In my opinion, they ought to be a recommendation.
Those who are considerably to the right or left often seem to have another thing in common: when their party happens to get into power, they believe it means that the Law of Thirds has been repealed, just for them. It hasn't. As far as I know it's still in operation, and has been for quite some time. Anyone from either radical third who thinks the American people will be happy to give his/her third a permanent ascendance in American political life is quite wrong, IMHO, and that person will be soundly rejected by said American people if he/she arrogantly and openly displays the hubris of thinking so--whether that person's name be Howard Dean or Newt Gingrich or whomever else would be an even better example of the genre.
Right now I'm not sure whether the vocal conservatives whom Ed Morrissey of Captain's Quarters refers to as the "Rebel Alliance" actually think they can win more elections behaving this way, or whether they just don't care if they do or don't as long as they get what they want now. Either way, the electorate is watching, and my guess is that the rest of the middle third isn't liking what it's seeing any more than I am.
By the way, if anyone wants to read an exceptionally reasonable conservative voice on the matter of Harriet Miers, please visit BeldarBlog. Beldar been hard at work ever since the Miers flap began, and he's somehow managed to stay informative, circumspect, and fair to all concerned. It can't be easy.
Sunday, October 09, 2005
Not a bad hair day?
From the Anchoress here, one of those ubiquitous online tests.
My result:
Your Hair Should Be Purple
Intense, thoughtful, and unconventional.
You're always philosophizing and inspiring others with your insights.
Not too shabby. I'll take it.
Posting will be light to nonexistent the rest of today. Back tomorrow with more intense philosophizing.
My result:
Your Hair Should Be Purple
Intense, thoughtful, and unconventional.
You're always philosophizing and inspiring others with your insights.
Not too shabby. I'll take it.
Posting will be light to nonexistent the rest of today. Back tomorrow with more intense philosophizing.
The left is alive and well and living in the royal family of Holland
A recent comment here (from my old buddy "anonymous," natch) questioned the influence of the left on current American politics. Scroll down at the link for the discussion which followed, if interested.
Whatever the influence of the current left in the US, here's a piece by Peaktalk's Pieter Dorsman, indicating that the influence of the very furthest reaches of the left are quite strong on at least one segment of the Dutch royal family, the queen's sister Princess Irene.
Princess Irene has said recently, in a statement indicative of a fairly extreme version of one wing of pacifism (more about that soon: Part IIB of my pacifism series is in the works):
“Western leaders of government have to take some steps. Talking to al-Qaeda and demonstrating that by doing that you can put an end to the classic enemy-view with real and open discussions”, according to Irene.
And here's Irene on the genesis of Al Qaeda:
The root causes of Islamist violence can, according to Irene, be found in poverty, trade barriers, and wrong relations. “The differences between the haves and have-nots is totally out of balance.”
Ah, but of course. A classic case of simplistic and incomplete explanations/excuses (although I'm not entirely sure what she means by "wrong relations;" that could cover a lot, including something akin to truth).
And lest you think Irene is just a blithering idiot to whom no one listens, here is more, from Pieter:
Don’t laugh. There are a lot of people who actually believe this nonsense, especially when it has a royal imprint. And the Dutch royal family is known for its willingness and ability to influence decision making in The Netherlands, not being hindered by any astute sense of what’s going on in the real world. Or by the constitutional tradition for royals to not interfere with or comment on politics.
Whatever the influence of the current left in the US, here's a piece by Peaktalk's Pieter Dorsman, indicating that the influence of the very furthest reaches of the left are quite strong on at least one segment of the Dutch royal family, the queen's sister Princess Irene.
Princess Irene has said recently, in a statement indicative of a fairly extreme version of one wing of pacifism (more about that soon: Part IIB of my pacifism series is in the works):
“Western leaders of government have to take some steps. Talking to al-Qaeda and demonstrating that by doing that you can put an end to the classic enemy-view with real and open discussions”, according to Irene.
And here's Irene on the genesis of Al Qaeda:
The root causes of Islamist violence can, according to Irene, be found in poverty, trade barriers, and wrong relations. “The differences between the haves and have-nots is totally out of balance.”
Ah, but of course. A classic case of simplistic and incomplete explanations/excuses (although I'm not entirely sure what she means by "wrong relations;" that could cover a lot, including something akin to truth).
And lest you think Irene is just a blithering idiot to whom no one listens, here is more, from Pieter:
Don’t laugh. There are a lot of people who actually believe this nonsense, especially when it has a royal imprint. And the Dutch royal family is known for its willingness and ability to influence decision making in The Netherlands, not being hindered by any astute sense of what’s going on in the real world. Or by the constitutional tradition for royals to not interfere with or comment on politics.
Saturday, October 08, 2005
So, what's the conservative rage about Miers all about?
Not being a conservative myself (I just play one on TV every now and then), I'd initially been surprised by the degree to which conservatives are angry at Bush for the Miers nomination.
But I guess I shouldn't be. When I really think about it, it seems that conservatives are so exceptionally angry because they wanted (and fully expected) him to give them exactly what they've been waiting for all these years, and haven't gotten from him yet in the Supreme Court Justice department--a fire-breathing ultra-conservative with a track record a mile long to make it all crystal clear.
If Bush had done so, it would have started a bitter battle. But I think a certain number of conservatives actually wanted a divisive and vicious battle--they were positively aching for it. I don't know why--to rub it into liberal faces, perhaps. So Bush deprived them of the candidate--and for some of them, of the battle--they had every reason to believe was coming their way. Now the full force of the anger that was building for that fight, fueled by their frustrated hope, is turned on him.
I think conservatives are also especially embarrassed at the cronyism aspect, because, after all, that argument against the appointment holds some water. It really does give at least the appearance of a problem, and it taps into some of the harshest criticisms that have long been leveled against Bush.
So, many conservatives (such as commenter "strcpy" here) are angry and stunned that Bush pulled the rug out from under them, as it were, and he did it in a way that has allowed liberals to say to conservatives, "See, I told you so!".
Here's strcpy to explain in his/her own words:
Basically I've spent a lot of time defending (and rightfully so IMO) Bush against a lot of charges from the left. Quite a bit of the cronyism, and then....this. It may not really be cronyism - maybe he knows her well enough to *know* she will do a good job, but surely there are others that he does also. Then he asks for blind trust. While I do not "not trust" him, I don't particularly trust him either (part of him being a politician - I trust him has far as I do any politician and think he is better than nearly all at a national level). It basically kills years of arguing - I can't point at someone and say "stupid" because cronyism is more likely than not in this case and your thought basically boil down to how much you trust him (along with the "I've been telling you for years, your an idiot"). Ultimately he lost years of political arguing with this giving his opponents something to bash him on that can't be refuted - after all if I'm "wrong" on that then it goes that I am on the rest.
What was Bush thinking? My belief is that Bush chose Miers because he thought she would be acceptable enough to the Democrats to be confirmed without a bitter fight (which he, at least, wanted to avoid) but conservative enough to actually perform as all conservatives want. By saying "trust me" he actually means "Look folks, I know her; she'll be every bit as conservative as you could wish, but she'll appear blank enough to the opposition to get through the confirmation process without a total war." But the words "trust me" sound condescending and arrogant--particularly when his base has just received what they think of as a betrayal--with the added drawback that arrogance is a charge to which Bush is especially susceptible.
To answer a question posed here by commenter "holmes," I do think the confirmation process can answer some questions about what sort of justice Miers will make. It can tell us a lot about her in terms of intelligence, verbal agility, quickness, integrity, courage, forthrightness--all of which are things that are relevant to being a justice. The clerks do a lot of the research, after all; a justice has to be able to think.
But my guess is that holmes' question taps into what so many conservatives are fearing--which is that hearings can't tell us how she will actually vote on the hot issues of the day if she ends up a member of the Court. Will she be firmly in the conservative camp? Or will she--like the woman she is replacing, Sandra Day O'Connor--be a conservative hope dashed, a swing voter whose only predictability is that her vote tends to balance the court and keep it from veering too strongly to one side or another? I don't know the answer--and, as a centrist, of course it doesn't bother me as it would a true conservative.
How blank a slate is Miers? The answer appears--at least so far--to be: pretty blank indeed. It turns out that not even most of her friends and colleagues know her actual opinions, although they speak highly of her. To me, this means either that she really is opinionless (which would be odd and rather offputting, a sort of Chauncy Gardner of the legal profession)--or that she is circumspect and private, which I don't mind at all.
Perhaps, in fact, Miers will turn out to be what all the conservatives say they want: a strict constructionist, who merely interprets the Constitution and keeps her own opinions out of it as much as humanly possible. Wouldn't that be novel?
[For my previous post on the Miers nomination, see here.]
But I guess I shouldn't be. When I really think about it, it seems that conservatives are so exceptionally angry because they wanted (and fully expected) him to give them exactly what they've been waiting for all these years, and haven't gotten from him yet in the Supreme Court Justice department--a fire-breathing ultra-conservative with a track record a mile long to make it all crystal clear.
If Bush had done so, it would have started a bitter battle. But I think a certain number of conservatives actually wanted a divisive and vicious battle--they were positively aching for it. I don't know why--to rub it into liberal faces, perhaps. So Bush deprived them of the candidate--and for some of them, of the battle--they had every reason to believe was coming their way. Now the full force of the anger that was building for that fight, fueled by their frustrated hope, is turned on him.
I think conservatives are also especially embarrassed at the cronyism aspect, because, after all, that argument against the appointment holds some water. It really does give at least the appearance of a problem, and it taps into some of the harshest criticisms that have long been leveled against Bush.
So, many conservatives (such as commenter "strcpy" here) are angry and stunned that Bush pulled the rug out from under them, as it were, and he did it in a way that has allowed liberals to say to conservatives, "See, I told you so!".
Here's strcpy to explain in his/her own words:
Basically I've spent a lot of time defending (and rightfully so IMO) Bush against a lot of charges from the left. Quite a bit of the cronyism, and then....this. It may not really be cronyism - maybe he knows her well enough to *know* she will do a good job, but surely there are others that he does also. Then he asks for blind trust. While I do not "not trust" him, I don't particularly trust him either (part of him being a politician - I trust him has far as I do any politician and think he is better than nearly all at a national level). It basically kills years of arguing - I can't point at someone and say "stupid" because cronyism is more likely than not in this case and your thought basically boil down to how much you trust him (along with the "I've been telling you for years, your an idiot"). Ultimately he lost years of political arguing with this giving his opponents something to bash him on that can't be refuted - after all if I'm "wrong" on that then it goes that I am on the rest.
What was Bush thinking? My belief is that Bush chose Miers because he thought she would be acceptable enough to the Democrats to be confirmed without a bitter fight (which he, at least, wanted to avoid) but conservative enough to actually perform as all conservatives want. By saying "trust me" he actually means "Look folks, I know her; she'll be every bit as conservative as you could wish, but she'll appear blank enough to the opposition to get through the confirmation process without a total war." But the words "trust me" sound condescending and arrogant--particularly when his base has just received what they think of as a betrayal--with the added drawback that arrogance is a charge to which Bush is especially susceptible.
To answer a question posed here by commenter "holmes," I do think the confirmation process can answer some questions about what sort of justice Miers will make. It can tell us a lot about her in terms of intelligence, verbal agility, quickness, integrity, courage, forthrightness--all of which are things that are relevant to being a justice. The clerks do a lot of the research, after all; a justice has to be able to think.
But my guess is that holmes' question taps into what so many conservatives are fearing--which is that hearings can't tell us how she will actually vote on the hot issues of the day if she ends up a member of the Court. Will she be firmly in the conservative camp? Or will she--like the woman she is replacing, Sandra Day O'Connor--be a conservative hope dashed, a swing voter whose only predictability is that her vote tends to balance the court and keep it from veering too strongly to one side or another? I don't know the answer--and, as a centrist, of course it doesn't bother me as it would a true conservative.
How blank a slate is Miers? The answer appears--at least so far--to be: pretty blank indeed. It turns out that not even most of her friends and colleagues know her actual opinions, although they speak highly of her. To me, this means either that she really is opinionless (which would be odd and rather offputting, a sort of Chauncy Gardner of the legal profession)--or that she is circumspect and private, which I don't mind at all.
Perhaps, in fact, Miers will turn out to be what all the conservatives say they want: a strict constructionist, who merely interprets the Constitution and keeps her own opinions out of it as much as humanly possible. Wouldn't that be novel?
[For my previous post on the Miers nomination, see here.]
Wait till next year....
Friday, October 07, 2005
Miers: mired?
Until now, I've kept out of the Miers Supreme Court nomination brouhaha. But I do have a few observations, mostly about the reaction to her nomination, and about Supreme Court nominations in general.
It seems to me that, ever since Bork, Supreme Court nominations have become highly emotional and conflicted situations, and this one is clearly no exception. Bush may have nominated Miers partly in an attempt to avoid the bitter divisions of the Bork battle; if so, his strategy has most definitely failed.
My own position on Miers herself? It's way to early to say what this woman is actually like and what sort of justice she'll make. Why not just wait for the hearings before starting to squawk so loudly? Right now it's all just idle speculation and guessing: much ado about nothing.
No, she's never been a judge. Yes, she's a friend of Bush's. No, she didn't attend an Ivy League school. Sorry, but I just don't consider any of those facts definitive evidence of anything. What I know about the Supreme Court indicates that the most salient characteristics its justices need are knowledge of the law, intelligence, and reasoning ability, and these are hardly the exclusive provenance of former judges or Ivy League graduates.
The whole thing is a shape-shifting, moving target. What the pundits seem to want in a SCOTUS nominee is precisely whatever it is that the present one lacks. If you don't believe me, try this on for size. It's a question-and-answer discussion with legal scholar John Yoo on the occasion of the Roberts nomination--remember that? It wasn't so terribly long ago, as I recall. (I have taken the liberty of highlighting in boldface the especially relevant parts):
How can someone that has never been a Supreme Court Justice be nominated for Chief Justice? For me it seems as if a person is becoming "police Chief" yet, was never an officer. Does the public have any say in this matter?
Surely the public has a say, by pressuring the President and Senators to demand certain qualifications for the Chief Justice position, if that is what desired. I want to note that several prominent political and legal leaders over the last few years have been calling for the appointment of Supreme Court Justices who have no previous judicial experience. This was, in fact, the normal practice for many parts of our history.
And then there's this:
Philadelphia, Pa.: If I heard the news correctly this morning: John Roberts has never confronted a witness in a trial and has never advised a client of the client's rights. I guess John Roberts should be glad that one does not have to be an attorney to serve on the Supreme Court as John Roberts has never been an attorney. Will the lack of practicing legal experience be any factor in these hearings?
John Yoo: John Roberts has not been a trial attorney, but then many attorneys who practice law in this country have never conducted a cross-examination in a courtroom. Roberts has appeared in court many times however. He has practiced in the appellate courts, which is probably far better preparation for work as a Justice than practicing in the trial courtrooms. I think your observation about Roberts's lack of trial experience is also probably true with regard to most of the other members of the Supreme Court.
I don't expect this lack of trial experience to be a significant factor in the hearings. Over the years, some have called on Presidents to nominate lawyers with more of a diverse background to the Court. It is, right now, composed heavily of former appellate judges with an unusually high number of law professors. Yet, for roughly the last 30 years, Presidents of both political parties have nominated sitting federal judges to the Court. This was not the case in the past, which has witnessed Courts with former Senators, governors, cabinet members, and leaders of the bar as Justices. If Roberts is confirmed, the only member of the Court who will not have been a sitting federal judge at time of appointment will have been O'Connor, who was herself a state judge at the time.
Roberts' lack of trial experience ended up not mattering. He silenced all his critics--well, not all of them, but many of them--quite effectively in his hearings, and made it very difficult for them to press the case against him successfully. Ms. Miers will either do that or she will not do it--and that's a great deal more important than where she happened to go to law school many moons ago.
The "cronyism" charge, on the other hand, makes me think back to the time President Kennedy picked his brother Robert to be Attorney General--now, there was cronyism! (actually, nepotism, but let's not get too technical here):
President Kennedy named his brother Robert attorney general so, as he put it, his brother could "get some legal experience" before getting a job. Congress was not amused by the joke, and although Robert served ably, it later passed a law forbidding the President to make appointments of close relatives to federal office.
Thank goodness for that law. Otherwise, no doubt, Bush's critics would have to deal with his appointment of nephew George P. as Supreme Court Justice--after all, he's got the law degree.
People are often flummoxed by Supreme Court appointees because they'd like to be able to control them and predict exactly what the justice is going to do for the rest of his/her life. That will never be strictly possible (although sometimes, of course, it works out that way). There tend to be a fair number of surprises, because once a nominee is on the Court, all bets are off. It's a bit like marriage used to be when it was pretty much for life and the stricter rules about divorce made it very very difficult to leave: a leap of faith into an unknown future.
It seems to me that, ever since Bork, Supreme Court nominations have become highly emotional and conflicted situations, and this one is clearly no exception. Bush may have nominated Miers partly in an attempt to avoid the bitter divisions of the Bork battle; if so, his strategy has most definitely failed.
My own position on Miers herself? It's way to early to say what this woman is actually like and what sort of justice she'll make. Why not just wait for the hearings before starting to squawk so loudly? Right now it's all just idle speculation and guessing: much ado about nothing.
No, she's never been a judge. Yes, she's a friend of Bush's. No, she didn't attend an Ivy League school. Sorry, but I just don't consider any of those facts definitive evidence of anything. What I know about the Supreme Court indicates that the most salient characteristics its justices need are knowledge of the law, intelligence, and reasoning ability, and these are hardly the exclusive provenance of former judges or Ivy League graduates.
The whole thing is a shape-shifting, moving target. What the pundits seem to want in a SCOTUS nominee is precisely whatever it is that the present one lacks. If you don't believe me, try this on for size. It's a question-and-answer discussion with legal scholar John Yoo on the occasion of the Roberts nomination--remember that? It wasn't so terribly long ago, as I recall. (I have taken the liberty of highlighting in boldface the especially relevant parts):
How can someone that has never been a Supreme Court Justice be nominated for Chief Justice? For me it seems as if a person is becoming "police Chief" yet, was never an officer. Does the public have any say in this matter?
Surely the public has a say, by pressuring the President and Senators to demand certain qualifications for the Chief Justice position, if that is what desired. I want to note that several prominent political and legal leaders over the last few years have been calling for the appointment of Supreme Court Justices who have no previous judicial experience. This was, in fact, the normal practice for many parts of our history.
And then there's this:
Philadelphia, Pa.: If I heard the news correctly this morning: John Roberts has never confronted a witness in a trial and has never advised a client of the client's rights. I guess John Roberts should be glad that one does not have to be an attorney to serve on the Supreme Court as John Roberts has never been an attorney. Will the lack of practicing legal experience be any factor in these hearings?
John Yoo: John Roberts has not been a trial attorney, but then many attorneys who practice law in this country have never conducted a cross-examination in a courtroom. Roberts has appeared in court many times however. He has practiced in the appellate courts, which is probably far better preparation for work as a Justice than practicing in the trial courtrooms. I think your observation about Roberts's lack of trial experience is also probably true with regard to most of the other members of the Supreme Court.
I don't expect this lack of trial experience to be a significant factor in the hearings. Over the years, some have called on Presidents to nominate lawyers with more of a diverse background to the Court. It is, right now, composed heavily of former appellate judges with an unusually high number of law professors. Yet, for roughly the last 30 years, Presidents of both political parties have nominated sitting federal judges to the Court. This was not the case in the past, which has witnessed Courts with former Senators, governors, cabinet members, and leaders of the bar as Justices. If Roberts is confirmed, the only member of the Court who will not have been a sitting federal judge at time of appointment will have been O'Connor, who was herself a state judge at the time.
Roberts' lack of trial experience ended up not mattering. He silenced all his critics--well, not all of them, but many of them--quite effectively in his hearings, and made it very difficult for them to press the case against him successfully. Ms. Miers will either do that or she will not do it--and that's a great deal more important than where she happened to go to law school many moons ago.
The "cronyism" charge, on the other hand, makes me think back to the time President Kennedy picked his brother Robert to be Attorney General--now, there was cronyism! (actually, nepotism, but let's not get too technical here):
President Kennedy named his brother Robert attorney general so, as he put it, his brother could "get some legal experience" before getting a job. Congress was not amused by the joke, and although Robert served ably, it later passed a law forbidding the President to make appointments of close relatives to federal office.
Thank goodness for that law. Otherwise, no doubt, Bush's critics would have to deal with his appointment of nephew George P. as Supreme Court Justice--after all, he's got the law degree.
People are often flummoxed by Supreme Court appointees because they'd like to be able to control them and predict exactly what the justice is going to do for the rest of his/her life. That will never be strictly possible (although sometimes, of course, it works out that way). There tend to be a fair number of surprises, because once a nominee is on the Court, all bets are off. It's a bit like marriage used to be when it was pretty much for life and the stricter rules about divorce made it very very difficult to leave: a leap of faith into an unknown future.
The poor, poor military
Via Dr. Sanity, I found this data, which show that military recruits in recent years do not in fact appear to be drawn disproportionately from among the poor, thus negating a favorite liberal/left talking point.
Not that this will stop anyone from making the claim. And even if it does, and if the "poverty-striken victims" notion of the military is excluded, that would still leave its useful alternate: "bloodthirsty monsters" (see this for a discussion of both attitudes).
Not that this will stop anyone from making the claim. And even if it does, and if the "poverty-striken victims" notion of the military is excluded, that would still leave its useful alternate: "bloodthirsty monsters" (see this for a discussion of both attitudes).
Thursday, October 06, 2005
Terrorists: nihilists and/or mass murderers?
Christopher Hitchens, in a fine article in Slate entitled "Why Ask Why?", tries once again to tell the left that it's futile to imagine that terrorists such as the Bali bombers are rational actors responding to policies of the West:
The return of murderous nihilism to Bali is highly instructive. It shows, first, that the fanatics of Islamism don't know how to stop. And it also shows that they never learn. How can Jemaah Islamiyah, which almost ruined Indonesia's economy by its filthy attack three years ago, possibly have tried to repeat the same crime in the same place?
Hitchens goes on to demolish the left's policy-based explanations/excuses for terrorism, and explains the motive for JI's attacks instead as Islamicist fundamentalist anger. Anger at the relatively freer form of Islam practiced in Indonesia, hatred of the mostly Hindu population of Bali, and anger at the Australians for trying to help the Christian population of East Timor (originally a leftist cause, by the way). In other words, their "rational" motive is that this is an Islamicist religious fundamentalist war.
Hitchens uses the word "nihilism," (one I've used before, too) in connection with the terrorists. But I discovered when I looked it up that we are both using it somewhat incorrectly, at least in the historic sense of the word. Nihilism:
...rejected all religious and political authority, social traditions, and traditional morality as standing in opposition to freedom, the ultimate ideal. In this sense, it can be seen as an extreme form of anarchism. The state thus became the enemy, and the enemy was ferociously attacked. After gaining much momentum in Russia, the movement degenerated into what were essentially terrorist cells, barren of any real unifying philosophy beyond the call for destruction.
One can easily see that the first part of the definition doesn't fit Islamicist terrorists such as Jemaah Islamiyah; au contraire! Islamicist terrorists are for instituting more authority and less freedom--in fact, they'd like to maximize the former and abolish the latter. It is, however, the last part of the definition of nihilism that fits them like a glove: a love affair with destructiveness. And it is in this sense that both Hitchens and I use the term.
Hitchens is correct in locating the JI's policy motivations as being the establishment of a rigid theocracy, but one could have that goal and nevertheless shy away from blowing people up in restaurants and bars. To be a terrorist, these political and theocratic goals must be combined with a drive that is in the realm of the psychological rather than the political, and is actually more connected to the motives of the serial killer and mass murderer than the politician or even the true "insurgent."
Serial killers and mass murderers are not rational actors. They feel compelled to do what they do. Here is a description of their makeup and motives. Read it with terrorists in mind and see how well much of it seems to fit:
Mass Murderers are typically quite ordinary. They're reclusive, have few if any friends, and have no criminal record. However, they do not let go of past grievances and they tend to build and fester, with minor incidents being perceived as major offenses, and impersonal ones as personal. Some stress, such as a broken relationship, a loss, or unemployment, may be the trigger that sets everything in motion. They blame others for their failures and their motive is generally to strike back, to punish, and to exact as much damage as they can manage. The higher the death toll, the better they have succeeded. People who have been dismissing or ignoring them are not going to forget them now. Their choice of targets is typically irrational, and often does not even include the one against whom they wanted vengeance. Some...have shown signs of psychosis, but most have been judged sane at the time of the incident.
Every society on earth has a number of such individuals. Whether a person will actually act out as a mass murderer depends on a number of factors, many of them unknown. But if a society fosters and nurtures characteristics such as blaming others and holding grudges; if that society as a whole feels it's been slighted, ignored, and/or cheated; if violence in the cause of vengeance is glorified by that society; if there is a pervasive sense of failure, isolation, and frustration in that society; if people sharing these traits have the capacity, through modern communication, to get together, make plans, have easy access to powerful explosives, and are whipped into a frothing rage by inflammatory media and clerics exhorting them to murder in the name of holiness--well then, whatever number of people inclined to mass murder that society may have, such behavior is likely to be fully expressed.
Mass murderers tend to go back to the scene of the crime, or to target the same type of victim over and over again. In this, as in so many other things, terrorists resemble the compulsivity of the mass murderer. So we have another Bali bombing, and the World Trade Center was struck until it was finally destroyed.
Terrorists want power, and are frustrated that they don't have it. If you think about it, what weapons or power do they really have other than the power to blow innocent people--so-called "soft" targets--up? They can't win over an army; if they try to battle a conventional military or police force they are usually decimated. They also lack the power of argument and persuasion; only a small percentage of people on the face of the earth are going to convert to a rigid sect such as Wahabism or its ilk, since most people lack a natural temperament for and interest in fanaticism. Modern explosives have allowed a relatively small but determined group of power-hungry, frustrated, and otherwise impotent terrorists to make a relatively big bang, if they so desire--and terrorists do so desire, quite ardently.
The return of murderous nihilism to Bali is highly instructive. It shows, first, that the fanatics of Islamism don't know how to stop. And it also shows that they never learn. How can Jemaah Islamiyah, which almost ruined Indonesia's economy by its filthy attack three years ago, possibly have tried to repeat the same crime in the same place?
Hitchens goes on to demolish the left's policy-based explanations/excuses for terrorism, and explains the motive for JI's attacks instead as Islamicist fundamentalist anger. Anger at the relatively freer form of Islam practiced in Indonesia, hatred of the mostly Hindu population of Bali, and anger at the Australians for trying to help the Christian population of East Timor (originally a leftist cause, by the way). In other words, their "rational" motive is that this is an Islamicist religious fundamentalist war.
Hitchens uses the word "nihilism," (one I've used before, too) in connection with the terrorists. But I discovered when I looked it up that we are both using it somewhat incorrectly, at least in the historic sense of the word. Nihilism:
...rejected all religious and political authority, social traditions, and traditional morality as standing in opposition to freedom, the ultimate ideal. In this sense, it can be seen as an extreme form of anarchism. The state thus became the enemy, and the enemy was ferociously attacked. After gaining much momentum in Russia, the movement degenerated into what were essentially terrorist cells, barren of any real unifying philosophy beyond the call for destruction.
One can easily see that the first part of the definition doesn't fit Islamicist terrorists such as Jemaah Islamiyah; au contraire! Islamicist terrorists are for instituting more authority and less freedom--in fact, they'd like to maximize the former and abolish the latter. It is, however, the last part of the definition of nihilism that fits them like a glove: a love affair with destructiveness. And it is in this sense that both Hitchens and I use the term.
Hitchens is correct in locating the JI's policy motivations as being the establishment of a rigid theocracy, but one could have that goal and nevertheless shy away from blowing people up in restaurants and bars. To be a terrorist, these political and theocratic goals must be combined with a drive that is in the realm of the psychological rather than the political, and is actually more connected to the motives of the serial killer and mass murderer than the politician or even the true "insurgent."
Serial killers and mass murderers are not rational actors. They feel compelled to do what they do. Here is a description of their makeup and motives. Read it with terrorists in mind and see how well much of it seems to fit:
Mass Murderers are typically quite ordinary. They're reclusive, have few if any friends, and have no criminal record. However, they do not let go of past grievances and they tend to build and fester, with minor incidents being perceived as major offenses, and impersonal ones as personal. Some stress, such as a broken relationship, a loss, or unemployment, may be the trigger that sets everything in motion. They blame others for their failures and their motive is generally to strike back, to punish, and to exact as much damage as they can manage. The higher the death toll, the better they have succeeded. People who have been dismissing or ignoring them are not going to forget them now. Their choice of targets is typically irrational, and often does not even include the one against whom they wanted vengeance. Some...have shown signs of psychosis, but most have been judged sane at the time of the incident.
Every society on earth has a number of such individuals. Whether a person will actually act out as a mass murderer depends on a number of factors, many of them unknown. But if a society fosters and nurtures characteristics such as blaming others and holding grudges; if that society as a whole feels it's been slighted, ignored, and/or cheated; if violence in the cause of vengeance is glorified by that society; if there is a pervasive sense of failure, isolation, and frustration in that society; if people sharing these traits have the capacity, through modern communication, to get together, make plans, have easy access to powerful explosives, and are whipped into a frothing rage by inflammatory media and clerics exhorting them to murder in the name of holiness--well then, whatever number of people inclined to mass murder that society may have, such behavior is likely to be fully expressed.
Mass murderers tend to go back to the scene of the crime, or to target the same type of victim over and over again. In this, as in so many other things, terrorists resemble the compulsivity of the mass murderer. So we have another Bali bombing, and the World Trade Center was struck until it was finally destroyed.
Terrorists want power, and are frustrated that they don't have it. If you think about it, what weapons or power do they really have other than the power to blow innocent people--so-called "soft" targets--up? They can't win over an army; if they try to battle a conventional military or police force they are usually decimated. They also lack the power of argument and persuasion; only a small percentage of people on the face of the earth are going to convert to a rigid sect such as Wahabism or its ilk, since most people lack a natural temperament for and interest in fanaticism. Modern explosives have allowed a relatively small but determined group of power-hungry, frustrated, and otherwise impotent terrorists to make a relatively big bang, if they so desire--and terrorists do so desire, quite ardently.
Why do all the psychobloggers seem to be on the right?
Roger Simon paid a nice tribute to Shrinkwrapped and some of us other psychobloggers (no, not "psycho bloggers"), even though it turned out to be based on somewhat of a case of mistaken identity re Shrinkwrapped's semi-outing. I'm very happy to be included in their company, and in Roger's praise.
I have a question, though: why is it that all those bloggers who are therapists, or who were therapists, or who are about to become therapists (or psychologists or psychiatrists or--well, I think you get the picture) seem to be either centrists, or to the right of center?
I can't find any studies on this, but it's pretty clear that the vast majority of people in these professions are of the liberal or left persuasion, Wouldn't one therefore expect that among the crowd of psychobloggers many--if not most--would be writing from a liberal/left perspective? Or, if not "many" or "most," then at least some?
I did a fairly comprehensive search for psychobloggers towards the beginning of my blogging experience, but I found none to the left of center. If I'm correct in my assumption that there are none (and please, if you find any, let me know!), can anyone explain this rather odd fact?
In the absense of knowledge, though, I'm almost never without a theory. So I'll offer one now, for what it's worth. I think we are the ones with the motive to blog. We are faced with a sense of dislocation and puzzlement, and a need to explain how we (and others) have ended up over here instead of over there, when one might have expected the opposite.
I don't think that most of the other psychobloggers are "changers" like myself (I recall, for example, that Dr. Sanity is not). But I, for one, am continually surprised at the odd trajectory my life has taken--and, when surprised, my instinct is to try to learn and to explain.
I have a question, though: why is it that all those bloggers who are therapists, or who were therapists, or who are about to become therapists (or psychologists or psychiatrists or--well, I think you get the picture) seem to be either centrists, or to the right of center?
I can't find any studies on this, but it's pretty clear that the vast majority of people in these professions are of the liberal or left persuasion, Wouldn't one therefore expect that among the crowd of psychobloggers many--if not most--would be writing from a liberal/left perspective? Or, if not "many" or "most," then at least some?
I did a fairly comprehensive search for psychobloggers towards the beginning of my blogging experience, but I found none to the left of center. If I'm correct in my assumption that there are none (and please, if you find any, let me know!), can anyone explain this rather odd fact?
In the absense of knowledge, though, I'm almost never without a theory. So I'll offer one now, for what it's worth. I think we are the ones with the motive to blog. We are faced with a sense of dislocation and puzzlement, and a need to explain how we (and others) have ended up over here instead of over there, when one might have expected the opposite.
I don't think that most of the other psychobloggers are "changers" like myself (I recall, for example, that Dr. Sanity is not). But I, for one, am continually surprised at the odd trajectory my life has taken--and, when surprised, my instinct is to try to learn and to explain.
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
Time marches on: Lenin who?
The first time I ever saw a photo of Lenin's embalmed corpse on display in its mausoleum in Moscow, the sight gave me the creeps. There was something dreadful about making a body into an icon--a sort of zombie-esque quality to the whole enterprise. The Soviets may have abolished (or sought mightily to abolish) religion, but they seemed to have replaced it with ghoulish hero-worship.
Little did I know the lengths to which the Soviets actually went to keep the remains intact all these long years. And it's not just the Soviets who were big on these body-as-holy-relic displays; it turns out it's a Communist thing. Uncle Ho is on view in Hanoi, having been secretly super-embalmed by a special Soviet team sent to the North Vietnamese jungle especially for that purpose in 1970 (the Wikipedia article mentions that this seems to have gone against Ho's express wishes, which were to be cremated; it also mentions that other bodies on similar display are Mao Zedong and Kim Il-Sung).
Stalin used to lie under glass in Red Square alongside his illustrious predecessor; I recall seeing photos in my youth of the two of them, looking like bizarro twin Snow Whites waiting for princes who never came. But when Stalin was discredited during the Khrushchev era, he was removed from Lenin's side and buried under the Kremlin wall.
Now a similar fate might await Lenin. The NY Times reports that talk of his burial has been revived, and Putin is in favor of it, although the idea has its detractors.
But to me the most interesting part of the article was the following quote at the end:
No matter what Mr. Putin decides, there already are indications that time may ultimately do what no politician has yet achieved. The youngest Russian adults barely recall the Communist times, and some show little interest in looking back. "Lenin," mused Natasha Zakharova, 23, as she walked off Red Square on Tuesday, admitting that she was not quite sure whose body she had just seen. "Was he a Communist?"
Ozymandias
I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed,
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look upon my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
Little did I know the lengths to which the Soviets actually went to keep the remains intact all these long years. And it's not just the Soviets who were big on these body-as-holy-relic displays; it turns out it's a Communist thing. Uncle Ho is on view in Hanoi, having been secretly super-embalmed by a special Soviet team sent to the North Vietnamese jungle especially for that purpose in 1970 (the Wikipedia article mentions that this seems to have gone against Ho's express wishes, which were to be cremated; it also mentions that other bodies on similar display are Mao Zedong and Kim Il-Sung).
Stalin used to lie under glass in Red Square alongside his illustrious predecessor; I recall seeing photos in my youth of the two of them, looking like bizarro twin Snow Whites waiting for princes who never came. But when Stalin was discredited during the Khrushchev era, he was removed from Lenin's side and buried under the Kremlin wall.
Now a similar fate might await Lenin. The NY Times reports that talk of his burial has been revived, and Putin is in favor of it, although the idea has its detractors.
But to me the most interesting part of the article was the following quote at the end:
No matter what Mr. Putin decides, there already are indications that time may ultimately do what no politician has yet achieved. The youngest Russian adults barely recall the Communist times, and some show little interest in looking back. "Lenin," mused Natasha Zakharova, 23, as she walked off Red Square on Tuesday, admitting that she was not quite sure whose body she had just seen. "Was he a Communist?"
Ozymandias
I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed,
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look upon my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Believe your enemy
A while back, commenter Richard Aubrey wrote here:
The neat thing about our current situation is that we don't have to make stuff up about what our enemies want. They tell us. The problem is in believing them.
But you can't say they don't make their intentions crystal clear. As if we needed another example, LGF today provided evidence, in the form of an interview six weeks ago with the very spiritual Bashir, in which he is quoted as stating:
ABB: Osama believes in total war. This concept I don't agree with. If this occurs in an Islamic country, the fitnah [discord] will be felt by Muslims. But to attack them in their country [America] is fine.
SA: So this fight will never end?
ABB: Never. This fight is compulsory. Muslims who don't hate America sin...As long as there is no intention to fight us and Islam continues to grow there can be peace. This is the doctrine of Islam. Islam can't be ruled by others. Allah's law must stand above human law. There is no [example] of Islam and infidels, the right and the wrong, living together in peace.
Who knew that Bashir was a disciple of Samuel Huntington? Islam has bloody borders, indeed--you heard it straight from the horse's mouth.
[NOTE: To try to stave off the inevitable commenters who write that not all Moslems feel this way, let me just say: I agree with you. Not all Moslems feel this way. The trouble is that way too many of their leaders, "spiritual" or otherwise (and the powerful, vocal ones at that), do. And there is too much in Moslem scripture and history that backs them up. I'd love the so-called "moderate Moslems"--whom I believe exist--to gain a great deal more power over their religion and be successful in reforming and modernizing it. But I wouldn't suggest sitting on a hot stove till that happens.]
The neat thing about our current situation is that we don't have to make stuff up about what our enemies want. They tell us. The problem is in believing them.
But you can't say they don't make their intentions crystal clear. As if we needed another example, LGF today provided evidence, in the form of an interview six weeks ago with the very spiritual Bashir, in which he is quoted as stating:
ABB: Osama believes in total war. This concept I don't agree with. If this occurs in an Islamic country, the fitnah [discord] will be felt by Muslims. But to attack them in their country [America] is fine.
SA: So this fight will never end?
ABB: Never. This fight is compulsory. Muslims who don't hate America sin...As long as there is no intention to fight us and Islam continues to grow there can be peace. This is the doctrine of Islam. Islam can't be ruled by others. Allah's law must stand above human law. There is no [example] of Islam and infidels, the right and the wrong, living together in peace.
Who knew that Bashir was a disciple of Samuel Huntington? Islam has bloody borders, indeed--you heard it straight from the horse's mouth.
[NOTE: To try to stave off the inevitable commenters who write that not all Moslems feel this way, let me just say: I agree with you. Not all Moslems feel this way. The trouble is that way too many of their leaders, "spiritual" or otherwise (and the powerful, vocal ones at that), do. And there is too much in Moslem scripture and history that backs them up. I'd love the so-called "moderate Moslems"--whom I believe exist--to gain a great deal more power over their religion and be successful in reforming and modernizing it. But I wouldn't suggest sitting on a hot stove till that happens.]
Definitely not a bicycle built for two
Oh-oh.
Danger, and from an unexpected source. Men, you may want to leave the room now, especially if you are the sensitive sort.
Today's NY Times has an article on the hazards of bike-riding--yes, you heard me, bike riding, specifically the bicycle seat. And don't think you'll avoid the problem by using one of those new-fangled ergonomically blah-blah-blah seats, either. No; they appear to be, if anything, worse.
Since the Times is registration-only, I'll give an excerpt--a rather expurgated excerpt. Read the whole thing for the precise anatomical details--if you dare.
The studies add to earlier evidence that traditional bicycle saddles, the kind with a narrow rear and pointy nose, play a role in sexual impotence.
Some saddle designs are more damaging than others, scientists say. But even so-called ergonomic seats, to protect the sex organs, can be harmful, the research finds. The dozen or so studies, from peer-reviewed journals, are summarized in three articles in September's Journal of Sexual Medicine...
Researchers have estimated that 5 percent of men who ride bikes intensively have developed severe to moderate erectile dysfunction as a result. But some experts believe that the numbers may be much higher because many men are too embarrassed to talk about it or fail to associate cycling with their problems in the bedroom.
The link between bicycle saddles and impotence first received public attention in 1997 when a Boston urologist, Dr. Irwin Goldstein, who had studied the problem, asserted that "there are only two kinds of male cyclists - those who are impotent and those who will be impotent."
Although Bostonians (and even Boston neurologists, as far as I know) are not ordinarily given to hyperbole, the evidence is that Dr. Goldstein was over-the-top on this one. But 5% is nothing to sneeze at, either. So, forewarned is forearmed, all you bicycle-riding guys out there.
Danger, and from an unexpected source. Men, you may want to leave the room now, especially if you are the sensitive sort.
Today's NY Times has an article on the hazards of bike-riding--yes, you heard me, bike riding, specifically the bicycle seat. And don't think you'll avoid the problem by using one of those new-fangled ergonomically blah-blah-blah seats, either. No; they appear to be, if anything, worse.
Since the Times is registration-only, I'll give an excerpt--a rather expurgated excerpt. Read the whole thing for the precise anatomical details--if you dare.
The studies add to earlier evidence that traditional bicycle saddles, the kind with a narrow rear and pointy nose, play a role in sexual impotence.
Some saddle designs are more damaging than others, scientists say. But even so-called ergonomic seats, to protect the sex organs, can be harmful, the research finds. The dozen or so studies, from peer-reviewed journals, are summarized in three articles in September's Journal of Sexual Medicine...
Researchers have estimated that 5 percent of men who ride bikes intensively have developed severe to moderate erectile dysfunction as a result. But some experts believe that the numbers may be much higher because many men are too embarrassed to talk about it or fail to associate cycling with their problems in the bedroom.
The link between bicycle saddles and impotence first received public attention in 1997 when a Boston urologist, Dr. Irwin Goldstein, who had studied the problem, asserted that "there are only two kinds of male cyclists - those who are impotent and those who will be impotent."
Although Bostonians (and even Boston neurologists, as far as I know) are not ordinarily given to hyperbole, the evidence is that Dr. Goldstein was over-the-top on this one. But 5% is nothing to sneeze at, either. So, forewarned is forearmed, all you bicycle-riding guys out there.
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